{"id":49777,"date":"2026-10-02T21:42:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T19:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/novastan.org\/en\/?p=49777"},"modified":"2026-10-02T21:42:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T19:42:17","slug":"kazakhstan-ai-data-center-ekibastuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/novastan.org\/en\/kazakhstan\/kazakhstan-ai-data-center-ekibastuz\/","title":{"rendered":"Kazakhstan’s AI Ambitions Face an Energy and Water Test in Ekibastuz"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Kazakhstan has begun building a major data centre cluster in the industrial city of Ekibastuz. Its first phase will require around 50 MW of power, but the government’s longer-term ambition is to expand the site to as much as 1 GW. As the country seeks to position itself as a regional hub for artificial intelligence and computing, questions remain over whether its electricity and water infrastructure can keep pace<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In early 2026, Kazakhstan launched construction of its Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz, in the northern Pavlodar region, following instructions from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first facility in the planned cluster is expected to have an energy capacity of around 50 MW. Depending on investor demand, however, the campus could eventually expand to as much as 1 GW and occupy up to 1,300 hectares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekibastuz was not chosen by accident. The city is one of Kazakhstan’s main energy centres and is home to the Ekibastuz GRES-1 and GRES-2 coal-fired power stations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the scale of the project raises questions over whether Kazakhstan can generate enough electricity for such a large new consumer, how the data centres will be supplied with water, and what environmental pressures the development could create.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What is Kazakhstan planning to build?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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According to the Pavlodar regional administration, the precise distribution of land between individual data centres, energy facilities and other infrastructure will be determined as project documentation is developed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first stage includes data centre facilities, energy and engineering infrastructure, administrative buildings and AI computing infrastructure. Work is currently under way on site preparation, foundations, administrative facilities, checkpoints and the necessary engineering infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov inspects progress on the Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz.<\/em> Photo: Prime Minister of Kazakhstan\u2019s official website.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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The authorities say the initial stage will require around 50 MW, with capacity subsequently increasing in phases. Additional land has been reserved to allow the campus to expand if demand from investors and technology companies materialises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kazakhtelecom, one of the operators involved in the Data Center Valley project, told Novastan that the project envisages a hybrid cooling system combining precision air conditioning with closed liquid-cooling circuits using non-freezing liquid solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Construction has already begun, but public hearings with local residents have not yet taken place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pavlodar regional administration said hearings would be held after the necessary project documentation had been completed and the procedures required for environmental assessment had been carried out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The biggest question: electricity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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Connecting a new consumer with an eventual capacity of 1 GW would be unrealistic under Kazakhstan’s current energy conditions if such capacity were required all at once, according to Yerkebulan Kozhmambet, a member of the Public Council on Fuel and Energy Issues under Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“If we are being honest, today this looks unrealistic, particularly given that the average age of our generating capacity is more than 65 years,” Kozhmambet said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A phased project would be possible, he added, provided new generation and grid infrastructure were developed at the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first launch complex is expected to require 50 MW and is scheduled to enter operation in June 2027, while 1 GW represents a longer-term target rather than capacity the power system is expected to provide immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The scale is nevertheless considerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Kozhmambet, a continuous 1 GW load would consume around 8.76 billion kWh of electricity annually. Kazakhstan’s total annual electricity consumption is approximately 110-115 billion kWh, meaning the completed Data Center Valley could theoretically account for around 7-8 percent of current national consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“No region today has a free reserve of this scale,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The project also comes as Kazakhstan’s electricity system has faced shortages and imports, particularly from Russia during peak periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kozhmambet warned that if the full 1 GW capacity were introduced before Kazakhstan achieves a sustainable electricity surplus, the new data centres could absorb that additional generation and push the system back into deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy expert Asset Nauryzbayev takes a less pessimistic view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He argues that 1 GW would not necessarily pose a major problem for Ekibastuz if the development of the data centres is synchronised with new generating capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“If I understand the government’s intention correctly, it is based on the Soviet project to build four 4 GW power stations in Ekibastuz,” Nauryzbayev said. “In today’s conditions, the units would be 660 MW rather than 500 MW. An eight-unit station would therefore generate 5.8 GW. In those circumstances, 1 GW of consumption is absolutely not a large amount.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also pointed to planned new gas generation in southern Kazakhstan, which he expects to reduce the country’s electricity deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is an environmental price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“This will undoubtedly create an enormous carbon footprint,” Nauryzbayev said, although he believes the price of carbon offsets is unlikely to fundamentally affect the economics of the project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more on Novastan<\/strong>: Carbon neutral by 2060? Kazakhstan\u2019s green pledge faces a reality check<\/a>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is another potential risk if data centres are completed before the generation intended to supply them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Data centres will undoubtedly be able to pay more than ordinary consumers,” he said. “That could strongly affect the market if there is no direct link to newly built power stations. Data centres built quickly will take electricity away from ordinary consumers.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy says the government plans to add more than 26.3 GW of generating capacity by 2035 through modernisation, new conventional generation, renewable energy projects and nuclear power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of this, 13.3 GW is planned through 2029.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ministry expects the country to be able to cover domestic electricity demand from 2027 onwards and subsequently develop a surplus sufficient to accommodate energy-intensive AI infrastructure and large data centres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether those projects are delivered on schedule will therefore be crucial to Data Center Valley’s longer-term expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could water become the bigger constraint?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electricity may not be the only – or even the most difficult – resource question facing the project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation told Novastan that it has not yet received an application to establish a water-use limit for Data Center Valley. No specific limit has therefore been set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ministry said that the appropriate volume would be assessed once an application and supporting documents were submitted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Citing information from the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development, it also said planned AI data centres in Kazakhstan would use immersion cooling with specialised liquids, which should not require large volumes of water or restrict supplies to existing users.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This description differs from Kazakhtelecom’s statement that Data Center Valley will use a hybrid system combining precision air conditioning and closed liquid-cooling circuits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The exact volume of water that the Ekibastuz facilities will require – and how liquids used during maintenance will be handled – has not yet been specified in the information provided to Novastan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For environmentalists, this lack of detail is significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Svetlana Mogilyuk, chair of the ECOM public association, the Civil Alliance of Pavlodar Region and coordinator of the Aarhus Centre in Pavlodar, considers water consumption one of the project’s main environmental risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The Ekibastuz area has significant limitations in terms of natural water resources,” she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These constraints have historically been addressed through the Satpayev Canal, which draws water from the Irtysh River.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“But the canal also has limited capacity, and the Irtysh, from which the water is taken, is not unlimited either,” Mogilyuk said. “That is precisely why water is one of the main issues that concerns us as environmentalists when assessing the planned data centre project.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nauryzbayev similarly believes the project’s weakest point may lie outside the electricity sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The main risk of the project is not electricity,” he said. “The weakest point is the Irtysh-Karaganda Canal.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The canal was originally designed in part to support large-scale industrial and power development around Ekibastuz, he explained, but it was not designed for the subsequent growth of Astana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more on Novastan<\/strong>: Kazakhstan: Residents suffer from lack of water<\/a>
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“Power stations and Astana will now compete for water,” he said, adding that the situation could be exacerbated by an expected reduction in water entering the Irtysh from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One possible solution would be to use dry cooling towers, Nauryzbayev said, although this would increase costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vadim Ni, founder of the Save the Caspian Sea civic movement and director of a social and environmental foundation, said any meaningful assessment would require clear information about water consumption, water sources and the cooling technology being used.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The main environmental and social costs associated with data centre projects are their large consumption of electricity and water,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While electricity consumption can be significant at national level, he added, water use creates a particularly important local impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“For local populations, the sensitive issue is first and foremost increased competition for clean drinking water, which is already scarce in many regions of Kazakhstan.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environmental assessment is still pending<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology told Novastan that it had not yet received project materials for an environmental impact assessment of the Ekibastuz data centre development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An environmental assessment would need to consider the project’s location, technical characteristics, technology, timetable, resource requirements, emissions, waste and potential direct and indirect environmental effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vadim Ni argues that Kazakhstan’s existing environmental assessment framework is not yet well adapted to large data centre projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data centres are not currently explicitly included among the categories of projects automatically requiring an environmental impact assessment or screening under the relevant sections of Kazakhstan’s Environmental Code, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He believes Kazakhstan should develop mechanisms allowing the environmental and social effects of individual data centres to be assessed, while strategic environmental assessments could examine the cumulative impact of data-centre development across a region or the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At regional level, preliminary figures may eventually emerge through the IKI Nexus project supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, public hearings on Data Center Valley have yet to take place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mogilyuk said environmental groups hoped the authorities would soon begin a genuine dialogue with local residents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“So far, as often happens, the authorities have not entered into dialogue with the public and have simply communicated the idea of implementing the project through the media,” she said. “There have been no hearings yet, but we hope they will take place in the near future.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Ni, the quality of public consultation depends not simply on holding a meeting but on whether affected communities receive information early enough, whether documentation is accessible, and whether comments can genuinely influence the final project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The most important thing is that the people who are genuinely concerned about the project’s risks should participate in the discussions,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consultation loses much of its purpose, he argued, if participants are selected primarily because they are already inclined to support the development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why does Kazakhstan want data centres?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the questions surrounding resources and environmental impact, there are strong economic and technological arguments behind Kazakhstan’s data-centre ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IT analyst and large language model researcher Timur Bektur describes data centres as the physical foundation of the digital economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cloud services, government information systems, banking services and AI models all depend on computing infrastructure, while Kazakhstan also has legal requirements governing the domestic storage of its citizens’ data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“If you want to create your own AI product and need a GPU server to run an LLM model, you need a data centre and a server,” Bektur said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global demand for computing power is rising rapidly, and Kazakhstan could potentially supply not only its domestic market but neighbouring Central Asian countries as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The development of a major computing cluster could also attract cloud services, AI infrastructure, telecommunications and cybersecurity companies, as well as engineers, developers and specialised service providers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Kazakhstan, Bektur argues, this creates the possibility of selling something beyond its traditional commodities and energy exports: computing power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more on Novastan<\/strong>: In Kazakhstan, the futuristic city of \u201cAlatau\u201d reaches a new milestone with special status<\/a>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But he also remembers Ekibastuz’s own recent infrastructure problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The city suffered a major heating crisis in 2022, leaving residents without adequate heating during extremely cold weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“People were literally freezing,” Bektur said. “So the question has to be asked: who guarantees that something like this will not happen again?”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He remains optimistic about Data Center Valley but argues that the economics of the project must be demonstrated, particularly if the state is expected to carry a significant share of infrastructure costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“It is important to me that this project does not become an additional burden placed on the state or the population,” he said. “If it is economically justified, backed by demand and can bring real benefits to the country, then I am fully in favour. And I very much hope it creates no problems for the residents of Ekibastuz.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who benefits – and who bears the costs?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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For Yevgeny Khabarov, director of the TAUAN public foundation in Pavlodar, Data Center Valley should ultimately be judged not simply by the amount of investment it attracts, but by what Ekibastuz itself gains from hosting it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“I am interested not only in the question of how many billions of dollars will be invested,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The more important questions, he argues, concern how many resources the project will consume, who will pay for the necessary infrastructure, what tax and social benefits will remain in Ekibastuz, and what obligations investors will assume towards the local area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Investment in itself does not automatically constitute a public good,” Khabarov said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“If most of the economic benefit remains with companies and investors, while the environmental burden and the use of water, land, electricity and infrastructure remain with the territory, then a perfectly legitimate question arises: are we privatising the benefits while socialising the costs?”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a human-rights perspective, he added, development should ultimately improve people’s lives rather than simply increase asset values and investment volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Kazakhstan, Data Center Valley therefore represents more than an infrastructure project. It is a test of whether the country can convert its abundant energy resources and strategic location into a new digital industry – without shifting the costs of that ambition onto the people and environment of Ekibastuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Daniyar Sadvakasov.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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