A significant power shortage is expected in 2022 for Kyrgyzstan. In order to create power, the country relies on the Toktogul reservoir, which was built on the Naryn river. However, its level sharply decreased over the course of the last months. A worrying situation for a country that relies on this essential power source.This article was originally published on Novastan’s French website on February 8, 2022. It is a crisis situation in Kyrgyzstan. According to Kyrgyz media Kloop, the water level of the Toktogul reservoir, responsible for 40% to 50% of the power production of the country, has levelled down to 9.4 billion cubic meter on 20 January 2022. It figure represents 1.8 billion less than the previous year, as described by Radio Azattyk, the Kyrgyz branch of American media Radio Free Europe. On 2 February this year, the level dropped below 9 billion cubic meter, describes Kyrgyz press agency 24.kg, while quoting measures of the National Energy Holding Company (NEHC). This Monday, 7 February, the level settled to around 8.8 billion cubic meter. If that level were to drop below 5.5 billion cubic meter, then the dam would not be functional.

This situation worries Kyrgyz authorities, because 90% of locally-produced power stems from hydroelectricity, according to figures quoted by Kyrgyz media Akchabar. In order to keep up with the demand, on 28 January 2022 the NEHC appealed to the population to limit their power usage. More concretely, the provider urged people not to use household electrical appliances from 6 PM to 10 PM and from 7 AM to 9 AM. It also recommended varying heating supply sources- for instance using gas or coal. The authorities warned about the possibility of a crisis as soon as October this winter, however, to no avail.

The challenge of water protection while facing increasing electricity usage

At large, the issue remains intractable. Kyrgyzstan needs 15 billion kilowatt-hour (khw) each year, and up to 16 to 17 billion for a comfortable winter, according to Radio Azattyk. Just like 24.kg described in October 2021, winter consumption is particularly high, due to heating appliances being used. Hence there is a delicate winter season ahead, where the transition towards the heating season may be critical regarding the water level stabilization of the Toktogul reservoir. Read more on Novastan: Life by the River: Naryn in Kyrgyzstan The 2021/2022 winter season remained stable in terms of electricity production, according to the Minister of Energy Doskul Bekmurzaev on 18 January, recounts 24.kg. “Everybody is working as per usual. I am confident we will go through the winter period in a stable way”, he added while facing Kyrgyz Members of Parliament. Despite that, on 26 January, member of Parliament Mederbek Aliyev explained it was necessary to improve the electricity consumption culture, according to 24.kg. According to Talaybek Baigaziyev, the president of the NEHC’s administration council, a two to three million kWh increase was recorded in 2021, in comparison with 2020, describes Radio Azattyk. Kyrgyz people use more electricity than the established limit, especially in Bishkek, the capital city of Kyrgyzstan, adds the Kyrgyz media.

A substantial electricity supply planned for 2022

In general, Kyrgyzstan currently has a 6 billion kilowatt-hour electricity deficit, according to Radio Azattyk. And it is not improving anytime soon. Still according to Radio Azattyk, electricity engineers predict that by spring, the water level of the reservoir may drop to six billion cubic meters, a number which has never been so low. In order to maintain the water level of the reservoir, Kyrgyzstan imported electricity through Central Asian neighbour countries. The minister of Energy and Industry, Kubanychbek Turdubayev, stated that Kyrgyzstan had already agreed on a 3 billion kWh electricity import with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, according to Radio Azattyk. On 2 December 2021, an agreement regarding electricity supply for 2022 was also signed with Turkmenistan. Radio Azattyk explains that these importations, in addition to previous contracts, will allow for a 20% coverage of the national electricity demand. Electricity import was already significant in 2021. In total the country imported 2 billion kWh from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan through exchange or direct purchase. For instance, in spring 2021, Kyrgyzstan executed an agreement with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan over the electricity supply of 1650 million kWh before spring 2022 in order to overcome the crisis, according to Radio Azattyk. In exchange, Kyrgyzstan must drain water during summer months until 2023.

Towards energy independence despite all?

But these imports will be short-lived. “In order to achieve energy independence, we must increase the production to 18 billion kilowatt-hours” estimated Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov in October this year, relays Radio Azattyk. One of the solutions might be nuclear power. On 20 January, Russian business Rosatom and the Minister of Energy of the Kyrgyz Republic signed a cooperation protocol for the construction of small nuclear power plants. Read more on Novastan: Climate change could lead to ever more fluctuated temperatures in Central Asia An issue that seems to always spark debate is that the Kyrgyz government holds onto the hydroelectric power system. “It is not necessary to build a nuclear power plant in Kyrgyzstan. In each region, there are water supplies and an opportunity to build hydroelectric power stations”explains the Deputy Minister of Energy, Raimbek Mamyrov.  

Written by Maëva Pouffier

Translated from French by Emma Jerome

Edited by Maya Ivanova

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Due to the low population density, the Kyrgyz state provides electricity in some of the most isolated villages of the country. Crédit: Antoine Béguier

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With low water levels in its main reservoir, Kyrgyzstan is struggling to keep up with the increasing demand for electricity this winter. Deputy Prime Minister Ravshan Sabirov warned this increase could lead to blackouts, though he ruled out rolling shutdowns.

Kyrgyzstan’s deputy prime minister warned of possible power cuts in the country this winter. As Kyrgyz media Kloop reports, in a speech in parliament on 16 December, Ravshan Sabirov pointed out an increase in electricity consumption this month, which could lead to automatic shutdowns.

“Substations are heavily overloaded as electricity consumption is growing,” Ravshan Sabirov said. “Demand is growing by 7 to 10 million kilowatt-hours every day. Automatic, not rolling, blackouts are possible.”

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On 29 December, Talaybek Baygaziyev, the head of the Kyrgyz Energy Settlement Centre, a company analysing electricity supply and consumption, also stressed the spike in electricity use, urging the population to “save electricity”.

Rolling blackouts happen when a supplier intentionally cuts electrical power to avoid a complete shutdown. As Kloop points out, such blackouts are associated with the former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, toppled by a revolution in 2010. They often happened in 2008 and 2009 and contributed to popular discontent. 

A dry year

According to Ravshan Sabirov and Talaybek Baygaziev, the cause of the potential automatic shutdowns is the low water level in the Toktogul Reservoir, a large artificial lake in the east of the country.

The Toktogul Reservoir supplies the largest power plant in Kyrgyzstan, currently undergoing modernization. In 2019, the then-president Sooronbay Jeenbekov estimated it produced 40% of the country’s electricity.

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Talaybek Baygaziev links the lack of water in the reservoir to the weather. “This is due to the fact that the year was dry: the Toktogul Reservoir’s volume did not fill up sufficiently,” he explained in a press conference organised by the Russian media Sputnik. “If the amount of snow in the upper reaches of the rivers flowing into the Toktogul Reservoir is low, then the following year there may not be enough hydropower for the required amount of electricity.” This, he added, means that Kyrgyzstan will have even more difficulties with electricity supply next year.  

Imports fell through

As Kloop notes, Deputy Prime Minister Ravshan Sabirov had already warned of low levels at the Toktogul Reservoir earlier this year. On 5 November, he announced in parliament that Kyrgyzstan would import 500 million kilowatt-hours from Kazakhstan by the end of the year. This was to be part of an exchange, as Kyrgyzstan had sent electricity to Kazakhstan between June and August.

On 14 December, however, Joldoshbek Achikeyev, the director of the company running the country’s electricity power plants, explained in a press conference that Kazakhstan had not been able to export the planned amount, Kloop reports. “There is a supply, but much lower than the volume we had specified and planned for,” he said.

Electricity demand in Kyrgyzstan is highly seasonal, with demand spiking in winter. Consumption has also increased year on year: official figures show electricity use has risen by over 75% between 2009 and 2019, from 7,506 to 12,599.5 million kilowatt-hours.

Valentine Baldassari
Editor of Novastan English

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ANALYSIS. Since early November, temperatures in Uzbekistan have been 2-5 degrees lower than average. Electricity consumption has increased by over 17%, reaching a new all-time high on 25 November according to the country’s ministry of energy, who cut off electricity for many consumers due to high demand. Similarly, according to the gas supplier Hududgazta’minot, quoted by the Uzbek media Podrobno.uz, gas consumption rose by over 50%. At the same time, the ministry of energy shut off gas for many businesses, including glasshouses producing fruits and vegetables. The disconnections led to important losses for many farmers, who had to turn to coal for their energy needs.

Some even called for Alisher Sultanov, the minister of energy, to resign. He replied that the circumstances were exceptional. In fact, Uzbekistan’s energy industry has been facing issue after issue for over 30 years, with little investment resulting in a largely loss-making system.

This article was originally published by Novastan France for its subscribers on 30 November. Novastan English has translated it exceptionally.

Since early November, Uzbek households have been feeling the cold. With temperatures 2-5 degrees colder than the seasonal average, gas consumption has exploded. On 22 November, the state-owned company in charge of gas supply, Hududgazta’minot, estimated gas use had gone from 46 to 70 million cubic metres in a few days. Demand soon overwhelmed Hududgazta’minot, currently understaffed, causing shutoffs.

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This was a blow for Uzbek agriculture. As Gazeta.uz reports, glasshouses in the Samarqand region lost the equivalent of $35,000 (£26,000) because of the gas shutoffs. In Qashqadaryo Region, south of Samarkand, lack of gas resulted in the death of over 5,000 chickens, according to the Russian news website Fergana. The ministry of energy responded, as quoted by Kun.uz, that such shutoffs were part of the seasonal restrictions mentioned in the contracts between farms and gas companies, as supplying households and critical facilities is a priority.           

Less gas, less electricity

The lack of natural gas pushed Uzbekistan’s population towards other means of heating their homes, notably coal or electricity. The subsequent spike in electricity consumption led in its turn to electricity outages. Some households have been left without any heating at all.

This pushed citizens to put pressure on the ministry of energy, with some urging the minister, Alisher Sultanov, to resign. “If everyone resigns, who will do the work?” he replied.

The deputy minister Sherzod Kho’jaev told Kun.uz that electricity production would increase to keep up with Uzbekistan’s growing demand. He also announced an increase in gas production, which has been declining for several years.

Soviet-era infrastucture

More generally, the advanced age of Uzbekistan’s energy infrastructure is a factor in its current troubles. Built during Soviet times, it was only maintained as needed, and never truly modernised. “The main issue is the inefficiency of the gas supply system,” explains Shukhrat Bobokhujaev, senior professor at the economy of oil and gas department of Gubkin University’s Tashkent branch.

In an interview with the Uzbek Youtube channel Alter Ego, Alisher Sultanov stated that this inaction was “forced, that is, no funds were allocated.” Avoiding criticisms about lack of action in the past four years (corresponding to when the current president Shavkat Mizoyev came to power), the minister said it was important not to panic but also promised to find “who is to blame”.

Alisher Sultanov also pointed out that the energy sector had become one of the country’s priorities during Shavkat Mirzoyeyev’s presidency, from December 2016, but that it would take time before results materialised. He used the example of an electric power station, which takes three years to build.

The minister added that reconstruction and modernisation were in progress and that the industry was starting to attract private capital, for him a “revolutionary idea”. “This industry was a “sacred cow”, which could not be entered with private money,” he told Alter Ego. “And today the construction of a huge private power plant in Uzbekistan begins. The Saudi Arabian company Aqua Power is already starting work on the site.”

Administrative woes

Another explanation for the sector’s current issues comes from its administrative structure. Uzbekistan’s gas production is managed by two entities, O’zbekneftgas, which extracts gas, and Hududgazta’minot, which supplies it to consumers and maintains the pipelines. Hududgazta’minot was created in July 2019 to ease the privatisation of O’ztransgas, the company formerly in charge of the pipelines. Today, O’ztransgas is only responsible for exporting gas. All these structures are under the control of the ministry of energy.  

Separating production from supply has made adjusting to emergency situations more difficult. Indeed, even Hududgazta’minot distributing an additional 26,000 gas cylinders was not enough to meet demand. “The problem of providing the population with natural gas is not due to insufficient production, but to an ineffective gas supply system, with large losses as well as disruptions of the gas pipeline system due to obsolete equipment,” Shukhrat Bobokhujaev explains.

The senator Kutbiddin Burkhonov also criticised the state of the country’s pipelines, pointing out that 48% of them had been in use for 25-30 years, sometimes even longer.

The customer is not always right  

In response, Hududgazta’minot chose to highlight illegal gas consumption. This is also the line chosen by the chairman of the company in charge of regional electrical networks Ulugbek Mustafoiev. In an article published by the state news agency Uza.uz, he contends that the sector’s problems are due to consumers not paying their electricity bills and not facing consequences, causing huge losses for electricity companies. In his view, the creation of an automatic system to check payments will help regulate electricity supply and prevent the sort of energy issues the country faced in November.

Alisher Sultanov expressed a similar point of view on the Alter Ego Youtube channel, blaming unpaid bills on “people who consider themselves businessmen”, not “common people, who do not use much gas.”

The situation remains delicate. The Uzbek authorities have already announced that electricity and gas prices will not increase in 2021, Gazeta.uz reports. For its part, the Russian producer Lukoil said on 27 November that it was nearly once again reaching its planned gas production level in Uzbekistan. Production had fallen by 40% due to the coronavirus pandemic and declining demand from China.

“To solve the accumulated problems, complex decisions such as completely replacing industry managers and updating human resources policies are necessary,” Shukhrat Bobokhujaev asserts. He also suggests “suspending funding for ineffective investment projects, revising how funding is given and attracting foreign specialists to this process” and “establishing appropriate controls on natural gas supply to residents and businesses”.

Etienne Combier
Co-founder of Novastan France

Translated by Valentine Baldassari

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