A strong gust of wind sweeps across the arid landscape around the village of Shetpe in western Kazakhstan, obscuring the view of the road and the landscape.

Climate change and overgrazing are further accelerating desertification.

Credits: Balzhan & Axel Monse (Germany)

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Since May 2023, the capital of Kazakhstan is suffering from a severe water crisis, as a result residents are now facing a shortage of drinking water. According to the government, across the country there are more than 600,000 Kazakhstanis that do not have access to drinking water. By 2050 the Republic of Kazakhstan may join the category of countries “in dire need of water.” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has proposed holding an anti-crisis summit in Kazakhstan under the backing of the UN to solve the water problem.

According to the monitoring group “Energyprom” – migration influx, rapid population growth and large-scale construction in the capital of Kazakhstan has exceeded the available capacity of the pumping stations. Therefore, on March 28, 2023, the city water supply service “Astana Su Arnasy” resorted to introducing an hourly water schedule to citizens. On May 23, residents of a residential complex expressed their dissatisfaction due to the lack of water by blocking the road.

On June 10 the situation was resolved and authorities assured that the problem would be solved by the 30 of June as they are launching a new pumping and filtering system. Meanwhile the publication “KazTAG” reported that the water source for Astana is designed for only 500,000 people while the city has 1.3 million inhabitants. The mayor of Astana has connected the water shortage with the population growth and the active irrigation of agricultural land.

Aset Kaliyev, Directory of the Water Security Centre at the international scientific complex “Astana,” told “Inbusiness.kz,” that one of the causes of the water shortage in the capital was the failure of developers to follow the general plan for city construction, “Having departed from the general plan, in Astana, with the approval of officials, densification and infill construction began. In turn, the infill developments began to cut into existing neighbourhoods, which already had their own load on the engineering networks. Since then, everything went “crooked and tangled”.

According to Nursultan Kerimkulov, head of the Water Supply and Sanitation Department, the lack of water will affect the development of construction in the city, but the quality of drinking water will not be affected.

Read more on Novastan: The recession of the Tian Shan glaciers and other recent studies

On April 19, 2023, at a meeting on socio-economic development of the country President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted, that by 2050 Kazakhstan may enter the category of countries in dire need of water. The President said that the infrastructure of large cities is not able to meet the increasing demand each year.

“Even in Astana itself, there has begun to be a shortage of water. One of the main reasons is the increase in construction. If we are not frugal, we will not be able to eliminate the deficit, even if we launch new facilities that provide clean water,” Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was quoted by the Kazakhstani news outlet “Tengrinews.”

Read more on Novastan: A disappearing river: the fate of the Ural

The problem of water shortages in Astana is not only related to the lack of design capacity of networks and pumping stations, but also to the direct shortage of water sources. Apart from the Astana reservoir, there are no alternative water supply options. Currently, the Ministry of Ecology of Kazakhstan is considering several options to solve the problem: construction of facilities to replenish the reservoir, laying a water pipeline and taking water from the Irtysh-Karaganda water canal.

The crisis of water scarcity in the cities and provinces of Kazakhstan will only get worse

According to the deputy director of public utilities of Kazakhstan, the provision of centralized water supply in Kazakhstan in 2022 was 96.8%. At the same time, more than 600,000 people, meaning the remaining 3.2%, are in need of drinking water.

Experts draw attention to bureaucratic complications that arise between government agencies at different levels and hinder the timely resolution of problems. For example, the government’s Geology Committee is responsible for water resources in Kazakhstan, while the Water Resources Committee controls pipeline infrastructure. Other local executive bodies manage network design and construction. However, not every region does the necessary work without delays. Marat Karabayev, Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development of Kazakhstan, made a statement at a recent government meeting.

Read more on Novastan: Climate change could lead to ever more fluctuated temperatures in Central Asia

The water sector also faces significant problems of deterioration of main pipelines and urban water pipelines. Overall, the degree of wear and tear on the country’s water supply networks is 43%. However, this figure does not reflect the scale of problematic networks in all regions. The highest level of infrastructure wear is seen in Almaty (58%), East Kazakhstan (54%), Akmola (52%), Abay (51%) regions and Almaty region (57%). In contrast, Atyrau region boasts the lowest level of pipeline wear and tear – 29%.

In 2023, a significant budget of 544 million Euros was allocated by the authorities for the construction and reconstruction of water supply and sewerage systems throughout Kazakhstan. The government of Kazakhstan plans to provide water to 1,395 villages and 25 cities that do not have full access to water by 2025.

Summit in Kazakhstan with back from the UN to solve the water problems

On June 8 and 9, 2023, the Astana International Forum was held in the capital, which was attended by the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the heads of several other states, including the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov. At the meeting, the President of Kazakhstan proposed to hold a regional climate summit in Kazakhstan in 2026, under the supervision of the UN and other international organizations.

“Our country offers tremendous opportunities for a green economy and become a centre for renewable energy. However, time is not on our side. To decarbonize and create a green economy at the necessary speed, we need resources and partnerships,” the official website of the head of state “Akorda” quotes Tokayev’s proposal.

Read more on Novastan: Kazakhstan: replenishing the Aral Sea’s fish stocks

To prevent an environmental catastrophe in the region, the country is calling for increased international support for the Aral Sea Rescue Fund.

“The problem of water and climate change are closely linked. Central Asia is a region where water security can only be achieved through close cooperation and effectively selected joint measures,” concluded the President.

For more news and analysis from Central Asia, follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Telegram, Linkedin or Instagram.

The post Kazakhstan: Residents suffer from lack of water appeared first on Novastan English.

DECODING. According to the last report from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), Central Asia is one of the rarest regions in the world where both droughts and excessive rainfall in large quantities are observed. The average temperatures of these countries in the region have already crossed the 2 degrees Celsius threshold since 1990.However, there is no time for panic: Central Asia is already used to the harsh climate, where the temperature difference can sometimes differ as much as 80 degrees Celsius over the course of a year. Simultaneously, the researchers of IPCC are faced with a lack of more detailed data regarding Central Asia, which makes modelling difficult. How will the climate in Central Asia change? Novastan tries to make sense of it. This article was originally published on Novastan’s French website on September 13, 2021. In recent years, the extreme climatic events in Central Asia are becoming more and more visible: more frequent heat waves, flooding, low rainfall, etc. The region, like the rest of the world, is not immune to what appears to be an accelerating climate change. On 9 August, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) published the first part of their report describing the state of the world’s climate. The nearly 4000 pages report focuses on the known physical change. Central Asia is squeezed between the two paragraphs, as an illustration of its position in today’s information flows.

Extreme Rainfall and Drought

“The vast regions of Central and Eastern Asia have been drying up at the start of the 2000s due to hotter temperatures, lower humidity, declining soil moisture (Wei and Wang, 2013: Li et al., 2017d; Hessl and coll.,2018)’’, described the IPCC scientists. “The Himalayan glaciers supply ten of the most important river systems in the world and are critical water sources for almost two billion people (Wester et al., 2019). However, they are part of the most vulnerable “water towers” (Immerzeel et al., 2020) which are expected to experience volume losses of around 30% to 100% by 2100, according to global emission scenarios (Marzeion et al., 2020). According to the global emission scenarios, the glaciers of this region should reach their maximum run-off between 2020 and 2040 (Marzeion et al., 2020)”, went on the panel. Read more on Novastan: Aralsk: Pictures Of The Vanished Aral Sea On a wider level, Central Asia is one of the few regions in the world which receives both the most extreme rainfall and experiences hot weather episodes, or even droughts, describes the IPCC. According to Alisher Mirzabaev, a researcher on climate change at the University of Bonn, this situation is due to the fact that the region is subject to a large variety of climates. “Most of the cultivated land of Kazakhstan receives rainwater, while other countries irrigate their land mainly with water coming from the glaciers”, explains the Uzbek researcher, contacted by Novastan. This distinction between the origin of water appears essential for the years to come.

A Change of the Origin of Water

“The north of Kazakhstan generally experiences a drought every three to four years. With climate change, this area may experience heavy rains in certain years while in some other years there will be much greater droughts”, wrote Alisher Mirzabaev. “This situation leads to more variability for the grain harvests. In the mountainous regions, especially of Tajikistan and of Kyrgyzstan, strong rainfall episodes will lead to a higher risk of floods leading to a landslide”, explains the Uzbek specialist. Read more on Novastan: Life By The River: The Naryn In Kyrgyzstan“Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are likely to receive more precipitation during winter, but less in summer. It is problematic because there are neither crops in winter, nor irrigation. Water will accumulate in the reservoirs, which are fortunately numerous. However, the mountainous zones are going to face challenges due to more flooding”, estimated the researcher. What is most problematic is the shift in water supply, when the areas used to receive it through the snowmelt get it from the rain instead. This change may explain how Central Asia have both more rain and more drought, since the water received by the rain may not be accumulated in mountainous areas. However, this change does not seem to overly worry Alisher Mirzabaev. “Solutions do exist, particularly [the problem can be solved] by the construction of reservoirs or through better coordination between countries upstream and downstream. There is no need to panic at this stage, these solutions must simply be explored and implemented on a larger scale,’’ estimated the Uzbek researcher.

A Sharp Rise in Temperature

Beyond the water, one of the most evocative points of the report about Central Asia is the changing temperature of the region. “Aridity in eastern and western Central Asia is likely to increase, especially after the second half of the 21^st century, with an average 2 degrees rise of temperatures worldwide”, describe the IPCC researchers. It is regularly reported that the temperature in Central Asia has already exceeded the 2°C increase and the region is warming twice as fast as elsewhere in the world.

“These days, when we talk about global temperatures, it is about the surface average between the temperature of the land and the ocean. But the land is getting warmer much faster than the ocean. The temperature on the land is already above 1.5°C in most parts of the world”, says Alisher Mirzabaev. “Due to the continental location of Central Asia, this twice as fast increase is not as dramatic as it would seem”, relativizes the researcher. Alisher Mirzabaev also points out that the region has a very high degree of temperature variability, particularly in certain regions of Kazakhstan where the thermometer can show -40°C in winter and +40°C in summer. “The key issues for Central Asia are extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts or sudden snow and spring frost”, estimates Alisher Mirzabaev. In this respect, the increase in temperature variability could be the real danger, says the Uzbek researcher.

A lack of Accurate Data in Central Asia

More broadly, however, accurate data for effective modelling seems to be lacking in Central Asia. Weather data do not make up for nearly 400 weather stations in the region and a dense network when it comes to climate change. “To be more precise, you must have information regarding the evolution of glaciers, sand and dust storms… There are so many parameters. Usually, this type of information is better in Central Asia than the developing countries but is much poorer than the level of developed countries”, described Alisher Mirzabaev. Collected information also seems difficult to access, which may prevent the publication of scientific articles on the topic, which will then be used in IPCC reports. “The modelling skills are missing. We should have more studies bringing global modelling at a local level’’, added the Uzbek researcher. On the specific point of IPCC, Alisher Mirzabaev is the only Central Asian researcher who has directly been involved in writing reports or editing them. Read more on Novastan: Troubled Waters: Turkmenistan’s Environmental Policy This situation could change in the future, with the integration of the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (Carec) as an IPCC Partner in May 2020. This centre based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, is one of the best in the region. For the seventh IPCC report, planned in 2028, Alisher Mirzabaev wants to believe that he will not be the only person to bring a more local point of view. Meanwhile, the second and third part of the IPCC report, on the impact and adaptation of climate change as well as the ways of fighting against climate change should be published by spring 2022. This makes a more and more concrete climate threat, in which human responsibility is unambiguously asserted.  

Etienne Combier Editor-in-chief of Novastan

Translated from French by Susan Higgins

Edited by Emma Bekrine

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