As Kazakhstan officially starts the construction of its new nuclear plant, the region is overwhelmed with an extreme heat wave. The climate change is especially noticeable in the continental climate: in the land where summer temperature peak at 49 degrees Celcius is even the slightest upgrade dangerous. But the efforts to become climate neutral country prove to meet some complications. 

The temperatures in Kazakhstan – as anywhere in the world – are rising. The winter of 2024/2025 has been classified as ‘anomalously’ warm, as temperatures exceeded the norm by 2 to 6 degrees. Spring and summer have been way too hot as well: monthly reports show temperature records. Over the last 75 years, the average yearly temperature in Kazakhstan has risen by 6 degrees.

The efforts to counteract climate change, or at least to slow it down, are extremely relevant in this context. But the current starting point makes the green future look rather distant.

Fuel dependence in the background 

In 2023, Kazakhstan’s president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed the ambitious Strategy of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2060. Nevertheless, in a country where the economy is deeply reliant on the fossil fuel industry, the shift toward renewable energy poses considerable difficulties.

Since Kazakhstan’s independence (now well over three decades ago), subsequent governments were betting on the extraction of fuel for continued economic growth, as well as securing investments through selling the exploration and recovery rights to fossil giants like British Petroleum, Exxon and Shell. Petroleum currently makes up 52,5% of Kazakhstan’s export, which earns the country up to 34,8 billion GBP annually. Whilst Russia is subjected to sanctions as a result of its war against Ukraine, western countries are looking for alternative suppliers. And Kazakhstan has proven to be an interesting partner in that regard – a fact reflected in the signing of new contracts, primarily for oil exports to Europe.

The fossil fuel industry remains far too profitable to scale back, let alone to significantly reduce oil production. Yet such a decline seems inevitable: if not driven by environmental imperatives, then by sheer necessity. Current forecasts suggest that known oil reserves could be exhausted within just 30 years at present production rates. While this projection may align with broader climate objectives, governments continue to pursue new exploration efforts in regions considered geologically promising.

The main problem: coal

Oil is only part of the problem. The energy sector in general is Kazakhstan’s number one source of greenhouse gas emissions. Although energy demand from industry accounts for just over a fifth of final energy consumption, more than a third is spent on the building sector. This is where coal processing comes in.

Kazakhstan possesses vast coal reserves, though extraction remains costly. The country’s largest deposits are relatively shallow but consist of exceptionally thick seams, making mining operations less efficient. In 2023, a tonne of coal could be purchased directly from mines for around 9,000 tenge – approximately £15.75 at the prevailing exchange rate – well below global market prices. For domestic consumers, transportation costs can nearly double that price, yet coal remains the most affordable source of energy production. However, its widespread use is responsible for more than half of Kazakhstan’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Most of Kazakhstan’s coal is consumed domestically, primarily to supply the country’s thermal power plants. Coal accounts for 99% of heat generation and more than half of total electricity production. However, many of these power stations are outdated and, in some cases, in disrepair. Most were built during the Soviet era and have long exceeded their intended operational lifespan.

Read more on Novastan: Kazakhstan stops investment agreement with ArcelorMittal after deadly explosion in Kostenko mine takes 46 lives

The government does not seem particularly willing to completely abandon coal. News outlet zakon.kz cites Kazakhstan’s Minister of Energy Yerlan Akkenzhenov: ‘We live on wealth. Coal-fired power generation is considered the cheapest option. In addition, the construction of combined heat and power plants also allows us to control the heat supply. As you know, all our cities are supplied by combined heat and power plants and a central heat supply. We must continue to pursue this approach […]’

As an alternative, the minister has proposed equipping the power plants with modern boilers that enable coal to be burned ‘without residue’. By 2035, ‘every combined heat and power plant will be gradually converted exactly to clean coal technology’.

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In a country with very cold winters, less than half of households are connected to a central heating network. In single-family detached homes, coal is frequently used as the main energy source for heating, which in turn contributes to the already high levels of smog produced by thermal power plants in big cities like Almaty. Taking into consideration the state of Kazakhstan’s housing stock, a considerable amount of energy gets wasted due to insufficient insulation or outdated heating systems. Ironically, even with the energy wasted, heating is still cheaper in the long term than investing in renovations.

Read more on Novastan: Breathing space: air quality and energy transition in Kazakhstan

Slow decarbonization in transport

A similar situation can be observed in the transport sector, the country’s second-largest energy consumer. The UN, in its roadmap for achieving the 7th sustainable development goal (‘Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all’), recommends that Kazakhstan decarbonize 15% of its passenger cars by 2050. Currently there are 6.17 million cars registered in the country, of which electric cars account for only 0.003%.

A quarter of a century is a long time – after all, 25 years ago, electric cars as we know them today did not even exist. However, the timeframe proposed by the UN seems optimistic for Kazakhstan: almost half of the cars in the country are at least 20 years old, and a significant proportion of these are cars would no longer pass vehicle safety tests, or would be banned from towns and cities for not meeting environmental standards. Although the government is planning to impose fines on car owners whose vehicles exceed emission standards, there are no plans to use the revenue to directly fund environmental initiatives. Many drivers only replace their cars when they are no longer roadworthy, and even then, they tend to turn to secondary and tertiary markets when looking for a replacement.

Switching to an electric car is not easy in Kazakhstan: all charging stations are located within the three largest cities – Astana, Almaty and Shymkent – and even there, their availability is limited. Due to the risk of fire, for example, it is prohibited to install charging stations in apartment parking areas. Electric car owners are hence dependent on public charging stations in large car parks and near shopping centres – which often do not supply green electricity.

According to internal research of a car manufacturer in the region, more than half of car owners do not consider electric cars as a purchase option when thinking about their next buy. After the boom in 2022/2023, when cheap electric cars were imported en masse from China, excitement has subsided. The urban population with above-average incomes who wanted and could afford an electric car, have already purchased it; for the rest these cars are just too expensive, far too impractical, far too unfamiliar. Car dealers are now focusing on hybrid models instead, which could serve as a transitional solution. Yet even these are no option for the majority of the population, given the current state of infrastructure in Kazakhstan.

Clean energy: only a fraction in the market

It is not that Kazakhstan produces no clean energy at all.

Hydroelectric power plants, however, play only a minor role in the country’s energy mix — for understandable reasons. Most of them were built in the same era as the aging thermal power plants. Moreover, water resources are steadily dwindling, raising doubts about whether there will be enough water to sustain hydroelectric production in the coming years.

Read more on Novastan: Kazakhstan: Residents suffer from lack of water

Despite Kazakhstan’s favorable geographic conditions, solar and wind energy remain surprisingly underused. As of 2024, the country operated just 59 wind farms and 46 solar parks — a modest number given its vast, sparsely populated steppes that are ideally suited for renewable energy generation. The southern regions enjoy between 2,200 and 3,000 hours of sunshine per year — two to three times more than the United Kingdom. Kazakhstan also has excellent wind potential: average wind speeds of 5–6 m/s are common across most of the country, reaching up to 8.27 m/s in certain areas. Experts estimate Kazakhstan’s total wind energy potential at around 920 billion kWh per year.

Yet, this immense potential remains largely untapped. The main reason is economic. At current price levels, the clean energy sector is unattractive to private investors. Equipment must be imported at high cost, while the electricity produced can be sold for no more than seven pence per kilowatt hour, VAT included. For most households, retail prices are roughly half that. As a result, revenues barely cover maintenance, and the payback period for new projects is so long that, by the time investors see a return, much of the infrastructure is already outdated and in need of further investment.

It has long been evident that energy prices in Kazakhstan will have to rise to finance sector modernization and accelerate the shift toward green energy. The controversial new nuclear power plant will not be profitable otherwise: experts estimate that the price of nuclear power will be 12.5 pence per kilowatt hour in the first 15 years. Ultimately, however, it is sustainable energy that must take the lead. Sergei Agafonov, chairman of the Kazakh Association of Energy Suppliers, envisions an optimal energy mix in which renewables provide at least half of the demand, while nuclear power accounts for roughly the global average – projected to reach 12% by 2040. ‘Yes, renewable energies will have to dominate our energy balance over all other types of energy generation. The main thing is that we carry out this change carefully [..]’, said Agafonov in an interview with Orda.kz.

New turning point

The strategy for achieving carbon neutrality in 2060 contains neither an implementation plan, nor success indicators, nor any sanctions for failing to achieve the set targets. In 2017, it was already announced at the EXPO in Astana that the share of renewables should increase to 30% by 2030. As things stand, the quota is only 6.2%. This still shows a 4% increase over the last seven years, but the growth estimate was clearly far too optimistic. Just four years after the EXPO, the target value has been halved.

A scenario in which Kazakhstan fails to meet its 2060 targets remains entirely plausible. The Climate Action Tracker has voiced similar concerns, rating the country’s climate policies as ‘insufficient,’ noting that ‘emissions will continue to rise until at least 2035 under current policies.‘ The lack of genuine political will to tackle the issue is perhaps best illustrated by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s abrupt change of stance. Speaking at a forum of the National Council for Science and Technology on September 26, Tokayev underscored the continued importance of coal and made a striking remark about climate change:

‘frankly, everything that is happening looks like a large-scale fraud.’

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A strong gust of wind sweeps across the arid landscape around the village of Shetpe in western Kazakhstan, obscuring the view of the road and the landscape.

Climate change and overgrazing are further accelerating desertification.

Credits: Balzhan & Axel Monse (Germany)

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Snow leopards – an exclusively Asian species of large mammals of the cat family – live on the territory of 12 countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Mongolia, Russia, Nepal, Pakistan, Myanmar, Bhutan, India, China. With the help of modern technologies, scientists are monitoring snow leopards’ behaviour and lifestyle to increase knowledge about this rare species to guarantee their survival.

“It’s not that simple” – so begins the answer to any question about the protection and preservation of snow leopards as a species. Are snow leopards categorised as vulnerable or endangered species? What is the biggest threat to their survival and reproduction? What is the best and most effective way to protect them? It’s not that simple, experts invariably answer.

This vague formulation is due to two peculiarities of the snow leopards’ lifestyle that complicate the possibility of observation: they live in high-mountainous and hard-to-reach places for humans, and they regularly traverse an impressive territory in search of prey. Snow leopards are strictly territorial animals, with males maintaining and regularly making rounds of their hunting territories, which can reach up to 1000 km² in area. Cases when leopards encroached on the territory of another representative of the species of the same sex are very rare.

Although these animals need a large territory, a scientific report published in 2016 by the Swedish Institute of Agricultural Sciences confirmed that almost 40% of all protected areas in the snow leopard’s range are too small to support even one breeding pair of these endangered cats. Specialists are convinced that for the species to survive in the wild, it needs a range sufficient for free movement of at least 50 breeding females.

Surveillance methods

The availability of such data and its accuracy have become possible in the last few years thanks to the developing technologies of animal observation. Wildlife cameras produce fascinating videos and photographs of animals, as well as documenting every single individual captured in a photo. Previously, in addition to camera shots, scientists have collected animal faeces to study the DNA of snow leopards. But both types of observing and studying had their significant limitations: it was impossible to trace the range of the animal’s hunting area, to find out what and when snow leopards eat, and how long they nurture and raise their offspring.

This is where a revolutionary development – collars with GPS trackers – comes to the rescue. Several non-profit organisations and foundations have begun implementing this technology in stages. One of them, Snow Leopard Trust, with the help of partner organisations and specialists, has managed to put the collars on several snow leopards in Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia. They track some of the animals since 2006.

“With the help of information from the collars, we learnt in which territories the animals move. One female with a collar travelled a distance of 2,000 kilometres during the time we monitored her. We would never have been able to capture that kind of information with cameras alone. We can also see how long [snow leopard] stays in one area and how often it changes its den,” said Kuban Jumabai Uulu, Director of the Snow Leopard Trust in Kyrgyzstan.

How collars with GPS trackers work

“For us, the process of fixing a collar on an animal is a combination of skill and art,” notes Koustubh Sharma, Science and Conservation Director at the Snow Leopard Trust.

Snow Leopard Trust Senior Scientist, Dr. Örjan Johansson, is the undisputed leader among researchers involved in the implementation and development of this technology. At the origin of this ambitious research project to study the living conditions and survival of snow leopards, he has managed to collar more than 30 snow leopards in Mongolia since 2006. So far, it is the southern part of the Gobi Desert, located in Mongolia, that serves as the main area of the scientific study involving collared wild cats.

To collar the leopards, experts study the routes of a particular animal and place a trap in its path. Once the trap is triggered, a team of scientists travel to the location and sedate the animal with a safe sedative. During the time the leopard is unconscious, the scientists carefully check the animal for any injuries, put a collar on it, and collect DNA samples – blood and hair – for further study. If an animal is trapped with any injuries, it is released without a collar.

Read more on Novastan: Still under threat – snow leopards in Kyrgyzstan

The Snow Leopard Trust is particularly proud of the latest advances in collar design – the current version of the device has an automatic release system. 18-20 months after the collar is attached, it falls off the animal’s neck automatically without human intervention. While the collar is active, scientists receive new data about the animal’s location every five hours. This information allows them not only to trace the routes of movement but also to better study the behaviour and habits of the animal. For example, if scientists notice that the animal spends a significant amount of time in one place, it is likely that it has found prey and is dealing with it. As soon as the snow leopard leaves a given location, scientists examine the remains of the feast and determine by the bones which animal became the victim of the predator.

The researchers had to make sure that such an invasive approach to animal studies did not have a lasting negative impact on the wild cats themselves. To that end, before launching the tracker collar programme in the wild, the experts put the collars on snow leopards at Seattle’s Woodland Zoo. Careful assessment of the animals’ behaviour before, during and after the experiment showed that the collars did not affect the leopards. The same results were obtained after removing the collars from free-ranging snow leopards.

Captivity vs. Freedom

At the moment, about 3000 snow leopards are kept in zoos around the world. They are scientists’ last hope in the most tragic scenario.

“It is important to realise that despite loud claims that snow leopards are no longer an endangered species, such claims cannot be made with 100 per cent certainty. We still have no way of stating the exact number of snow leopards living in the wild. The interval between our estimates is considerable. We should also keep in mind that the number of snow leopards in the wild continues to decline,” explains Koustubh Sharma.

The situation is ambiguous with keeping animals in captivity as well. These are not ideal conditions, and in the history of the species, there has never been a single case when a snow leopard born in captivity was able to integrate into its intended life in the wild. But if the number of free-living individuals continues to fall and the population of wild snow leopards wanes, all hope will fall on captive-born animals. They are the key to the preservation of the species and a guarantee of its survival.

The main threats and the fight against them

The situation is not getting simpler in this matter. Snow leopards have many enemies: global warming and climate change, poachers, reducing numbers of prey, but also the local population sometimes can kill or seriously injure wild cats while defending their territory and livestock. There are also known cases when snow leopards have become collateral damage in the fight against rodents and wolves with pesticides in the predator’s habitat.

Read more on Novastan: Climate change could lead to ever more fluctuated temperatures in Central Asia

The Global Programme for the Conservation of Snow Leopards and their Ecosystems in Kazakhstan estimates that snow leopards are exposed to all the above threats. The biggest threat comes from poachers, revengeful shepherds and lawbreaking hunters. Also, despite the existing numerous international and national laws and environmental acts, snow leopards are globally threatened with extinction due to insufficient implementation of these legal documents. Human activities that encroach on snow leopards’ habitat, as well as contributing to climate change, are increasingly reducing the territory already insufficient for the species’ prolific survival.

Nevertheless, foundations and NGOs are not despairing. Depending on the most widespread threats to the species’ survival in a particular country, organisations are developing programmes to address them. For example, in remote regions of India and Pakistan, where herders often kill snow leopards to protect their livestock, the Snow Leopard Trust offers financial compensation for lost farm animals. In Kyrgyzstan, Kuban Jumabai Uuly’s team rewards park rangers for every poacher caught, and conducts information classes about snow leopards for children and families living next door to the animal’s habitat.

All countries participating in the Global Programme for the Conservation of Snow Leopards and their Ecosystems, and more than 20 animal rights organisations supported an initiative called PAWS (Population Assessment of Snow Leopards in the World). The project was presented during the International Forum on the Protection of Snow Leopards and its Ecosystems in Bishkek in 2017; its main goal is to gain the most accurate estimation of the population of snow leopards in the wild.

In the meantime, every person interested in the conservation of the species can contribute in one simple way: familiarising themselves with the realities of snow leopards’ lives. Lack of knowledge among the local population and those authorised by the authorities is also one of the serious factors negatively affecting the living conditions of snow leopards.

Photos: Snow Leopard Trust

Preview collage: Perizat Suleiman

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CENTRAL ASIA SCIENCE REVIEW − Thanks to images provided by US intelligence agencies, researchers have been able to observe the recession of glaciers in Central Asia.  In other news, Uzbek remains from the Iron Age have been examined to determine their origins. This article was originally published on Novastan’s French website on 27 October 2021. Many research studies conducted by local and international institutes and universities shed light on Central Asia. Novastan brings you a selection of recent studies on the region.

Tian Shan glaciers in constant recession since the 1960s

Because of global warming, melting glaciers in Asia will have direct consequences for the populations of Central Asia and their access to water. Studying the evolution of the glaciers is therefore crucial to foresee the consequences. However, estimations of the glaciers’ volume, via satellite observation, are rather recent and do not go back further than thirty years. In order to reconstruct the path of evolution prior to that date, an international team, including researchers from the Almaty Institute of Geography (located in southern Kazakhstan), have used an unexpected source of data: US intelligence agencies. In their study published last July in Nature Communications, scientists explain that they used satellite images from the US program CORONA, which operated between 1959 and 1972. These spy satellites were used by the US to monitor the USSR during the Cold War by taking images with a two-metre resolution. By using images from CORONA KH-4 and KH-9 which feature Asian glaciers, researchers were able to extend the estimation of the glaciers’ volume to the beginning of the 1960s. The results of their study show that the seven researched regions all suffered from a loss of ice mass during this time period, the main region being the northern part of the Tian Shan. Research also shows that this loss is strongly linked with summer temperatures. Read more on Novastan:Climate change could lead to ever more fluctuated temperatures in Central Asia Furthermore, the scientists state that in the Tian Shan, some glaciers have already permanently receded, whereas others that had seemed more stable are now starting to suffer from global warming, showing significant decline. This report shines a new light on the long-term evolution of glaciers, particularly within Central Asia. It could help to better understand the melting phenomenon which is linked to global warming and therefore to anticipate its consequences on Central Asia’s ecosystems and populations. The genetic origins of the Iron Age Uzbeks The different peoples and ethnicities of Central Asia have complex origins, which the latest gene sequencing developments are trying to decipher. To this end, a study published on 28 July in Molecular Biology and Evolution has focused on Iron Age Uzbek populations to determine their origins. By using genetic markers, scientists investigated the genome extracted from 27 individuals whose remains date back to the Iron Age (about 2100 to 1500 years ago) and had been found in southern modern-day Uzbekistan. By focusing on variations in single base pairs in DNA, researchers were able to determine continuity between Bronze Age populations of Iranian and Anatolian ancestry and Iron Age populations. However, their work reveals an increase in mixing with other steppe populations during the latter period. These results provide a better understanding of the cultural diversity of Iron Age peoples in this region by identifying the genetic differences present in them. The special case of fish diversity in Uzbekistan In other news about Uzbekistan, a study published on 19 August in Scientific Reports looked at the genetic diversity of fish in the country. Uzbekistan’s geographical situation is special because it is one of only two endorheic countries in the world – in other words, none of its rivers flow into any sea or ocean. This configuration makes it a closed river system that affects the biological diversity of fish. Bakhtiyor Sheraliev, from the Faculty of Life Sciences at Fergana State University, and his co-author Zuogang Peng, therefore wanted to survey the diversity of fish in this particular system. To do this, they collected 666 fish specimens from several rivers and lakes. These were found to belong to 59 different fish species. Read more on Novastan:Talas and its people: life by a Central Asian river affected by climate change The researchers identified the species by combining morphometric measurements with known genetic markers, thus making it possible to differentiate between each species. The results of their study show that the already low diversity of fish in Uzbek waters has continued to decline in recent years. Of the species identified, a handful are considered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature to be endangered. This study demonstrates the possibility of using a genetic identification approach to survey fish populations more quickly and accurately than conventional methods. In addition, the results reveal details of the current ecological diversity in Uzbekistan, which can be used to better protect threatened species and their ecosystems. Genetics reveal the appearance of Stipa capillata Also published in Scientific Reports are details about an international team which succeeded in sequencing the genome of Stipa capillata.  The study was published on 28 July. This plant, which is one of the most widespread feathered grasses in Europe and Asia, is found extensively on the steppes of Central Asia. Knowing the distribution of the various species of the Stipa genus in these environments makes it possible to classify them to monitor their evolution, which is a particularly important task in the context of climate change. By sequencing the genome of specimens collected in Kyrgyzstan for the first time, the scientists were able to trace the origin of the Stipa genus. The analysis of the genome made it possible to estimate that the genus appeared around 4.39 million years ago. This study contributes to a better understanding of the steppe ecosystem, in particular to the diversity of plants, which remains insufficiently documented.  

Written by Anthony Vial

Translated from French by Leopoldine Rigaud

Edited by Mari Paine

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The post The recession of the Tian Shan glaciers and other recent studies appeared first on Novastan English.

DECODING. According to the last report from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), Central Asia is one of the rarest regions in the world where both droughts and excessive rainfall in large quantities are observed. The average temperatures of these countries in the region have already crossed the 2 degrees Celsius threshold since 1990.However, there is no time for panic: Central Asia is already used to the harsh climate, where the temperature difference can sometimes differ as much as 80 degrees Celsius over the course of a year. Simultaneously, the researchers of IPCC are faced with a lack of more detailed data regarding Central Asia, which makes modelling difficult. How will the climate in Central Asia change? Novastan tries to make sense of it. This article was originally published on Novastan’s French website on September 13, 2021. In recent years, the extreme climatic events in Central Asia are becoming more and more visible: more frequent heat waves, flooding, low rainfall, etc. The region, like the rest of the world, is not immune to what appears to be an accelerating climate change. On 9 August, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) published the first part of their report describing the state of the world’s climate. The nearly 4000 pages report focuses on the known physical change. Central Asia is squeezed between the two paragraphs, as an illustration of its position in today’s information flows.

Extreme Rainfall and Drought

“The vast regions of Central and Eastern Asia have been drying up at the start of the 2000s due to hotter temperatures, lower humidity, declining soil moisture (Wei and Wang, 2013: Li et al., 2017d; Hessl and coll.,2018)’’, described the IPCC scientists. “The Himalayan glaciers supply ten of the most important river systems in the world and are critical water sources for almost two billion people (Wester et al., 2019). However, they are part of the most vulnerable “water towers” (Immerzeel et al., 2020) which are expected to experience volume losses of around 30% to 100% by 2100, according to global emission scenarios (Marzeion et al., 2020). According to the global emission scenarios, the glaciers of this region should reach their maximum run-off between 2020 and 2040 (Marzeion et al., 2020)”, went on the panel. Read more on Novastan: Aralsk: Pictures Of The Vanished Aral Sea On a wider level, Central Asia is one of the few regions in the world which receives both the most extreme rainfall and experiences hot weather episodes, or even droughts, describes the IPCC. According to Alisher Mirzabaev, a researcher on climate change at the University of Bonn, this situation is due to the fact that the region is subject to a large variety of climates. “Most of the cultivated land of Kazakhstan receives rainwater, while other countries irrigate their land mainly with water coming from the glaciers”, explains the Uzbek researcher, contacted by Novastan. This distinction between the origin of water appears essential for the years to come.

A Change of the Origin of Water

“The north of Kazakhstan generally experiences a drought every three to four years. With climate change, this area may experience heavy rains in certain years while in some other years there will be much greater droughts”, wrote Alisher Mirzabaev. “This situation leads to more variability for the grain harvests. In the mountainous regions, especially of Tajikistan and of Kyrgyzstan, strong rainfall episodes will lead to a higher risk of floods leading to a landslide”, explains the Uzbek specialist. Read more on Novastan: Life By The River: The Naryn In Kyrgyzstan“Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are likely to receive more precipitation during winter, but less in summer. It is problematic because there are neither crops in winter, nor irrigation. Water will accumulate in the reservoirs, which are fortunately numerous. However, the mountainous zones are going to face challenges due to more flooding”, estimated the researcher. What is most problematic is the shift in water supply, when the areas used to receive it through the snowmelt get it from the rain instead. This change may explain how Central Asia have both more rain and more drought, since the water received by the rain may not be accumulated in mountainous areas. However, this change does not seem to overly worry Alisher Mirzabaev. “Solutions do exist, particularly [the problem can be solved] by the construction of reservoirs or through better coordination between countries upstream and downstream. There is no need to panic at this stage, these solutions must simply be explored and implemented on a larger scale,’’ estimated the Uzbek researcher.

A Sharp Rise in Temperature

Beyond the water, one of the most evocative points of the report about Central Asia is the changing temperature of the region. “Aridity in eastern and western Central Asia is likely to increase, especially after the second half of the 21^st century, with an average 2 degrees rise of temperatures worldwide”, describe the IPCC researchers. It is regularly reported that the temperature in Central Asia has already exceeded the 2°C increase and the region is warming twice as fast as elsewhere in the world.

“These days, when we talk about global temperatures, it is about the surface average between the temperature of the land and the ocean. But the land is getting warmer much faster than the ocean. The temperature on the land is already above 1.5°C in most parts of the world”, says Alisher Mirzabaev. “Due to the continental location of Central Asia, this twice as fast increase is not as dramatic as it would seem”, relativizes the researcher. Alisher Mirzabaev also points out that the region has a very high degree of temperature variability, particularly in certain regions of Kazakhstan where the thermometer can show -40°C in winter and +40°C in summer. “The key issues for Central Asia are extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts or sudden snow and spring frost”, estimates Alisher Mirzabaev. In this respect, the increase in temperature variability could be the real danger, says the Uzbek researcher.

A lack of Accurate Data in Central Asia

More broadly, however, accurate data for effective modelling seems to be lacking in Central Asia. Weather data do not make up for nearly 400 weather stations in the region and a dense network when it comes to climate change. “To be more precise, you must have information regarding the evolution of glaciers, sand and dust storms… There are so many parameters. Usually, this type of information is better in Central Asia than the developing countries but is much poorer than the level of developed countries”, described Alisher Mirzabaev. Collected information also seems difficult to access, which may prevent the publication of scientific articles on the topic, which will then be used in IPCC reports. “The modelling skills are missing. We should have more studies bringing global modelling at a local level’’, added the Uzbek researcher. On the specific point of IPCC, Alisher Mirzabaev is the only Central Asian researcher who has directly been involved in writing reports or editing them. Read more on Novastan: Troubled Waters: Turkmenistan’s Environmental Policy This situation could change in the future, with the integration of the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (Carec) as an IPCC Partner in May 2020. This centre based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, is one of the best in the region. For the seventh IPCC report, planned in 2028, Alisher Mirzabaev wants to believe that he will not be the only person to bring a more local point of view. Meanwhile, the second and third part of the IPCC report, on the impact and adaptation of climate change as well as the ways of fighting against climate change should be published by spring 2022. This makes a more and more concrete climate threat, in which human responsibility is unambiguously asserted.  

Etienne Combier Editor-in-chief of Novastan

Translated from French by Susan Higgins

Edited by Emma Bekrine

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